The Big East's NCAA Tournament Bubble Picture
Big East Teams Providence, Cincinnati and Georgetown Need Help
Thirty-four at-large spots are available for the NCAA tournament, and as always analysts and fans clamor for those spots to go to the "best" teams remaining. Most are taken up by the traditional "power conferences", and the lobbying on behalf of those leagues is relentless. This year's biggest lobby is in the ACC and Big East, both hoping for eight or nine teams to represent their conferences.
The Big East's Big Five
Assuming the big five of Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette and Villanova are mortal locks for tournament bids, the reality is that at most an additional four teams should obtain bids.The most logical contenders for the remaining spots are West Virginia, Syracuse, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Providence and Notre Dame. While all believe they can make a case, it's time to narrow down the field.
Syracuse and West Virginia Are Twenty Win Teams
Twenty wins is the benchmark for a season and of the remaining contenders at this writing only West Virginia and Syracuse have hit the mark. In addition, both teams sport winning in-conference records and maintain RPI and Strength of Schedule (SOS) rankings inside the top 25. West Virginia's biggest in-conference win was against Villanova, further solidifying their case. Syracuse lacks a big win against the big five but did beat West Virginia. Both should qualify.
The Battle For Remaining Spots
With seven spots fairly well assured the remaining four teams may be fighting for perhaps two spots. Both Cincinnati and Providence have 18 wins but, neither cracks the top fifty in RPI. Providence's conference record of 10-7 includes a huge win against Pittsburgh and a sweep of Cincinnati during the season, so of these two Providence, despite a lower RPI and SOS, should qualify.
Georgetown, Cincinnati and Notre Dame Battle for One Spot
Georgetown, Cincinnati and Notre Dame remain. Cincinnati, with 18 wins, an even 8-8 regular season record, and an RPI just outside the top 50 should be the favorite. Georgetown's case rests on wins over Connecticut, Syracuse, and Villanova in addition to the highest SOS in the country. But they've lost bad games to the lower echelon in the league, lost to Cincinnati twice and to Notre Dame. Head-to-head is critical and they can't match up.
As for Cincinnati and Notre Dame, it's really no contest. Notre Dame can't finish above .500 in the league, has lost to Cincinnati and is barely in the top 70 RPI. Cincinnati should round out the last spot in the Big East.
The Big East Tournament
At this point the remaining league games are important only to determine a regular season conference champion, either Connecticut or Pittsburgh, and final seeding for the Big East Tournament. West Virginia and Syracuse have some wiggle room left if they lose early in the tournament, but the same can't be said for Providence and Cincinnati. As for Georgetown and Notre Dame, deep tournament runs are essential to get into the conversation for additional league invitations.
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