NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Bracketology
Tips and Tools for Filling out Your Brackets
65 Division I teams make the cut; one will win it all. How can you make that call--not to mention all the upsets, Cinderella stories, and big wins along the way?
It helps to do the research: look at opposing teams' records against one another (and if they haven't played one another, look at records against similarly stacked teams), offensive and defensive match-ups, how well teams fare on the road, and the health of key players.
But equally important to--if not more important than--the research is common bracketology sense, as outlined in the tips below.
Where to Start: Outside In or Inside Out?
Bracketology rookies (and seasoned, risk-taking vets) fill their brackets out from the outside in, weighing each first-round game, then second-round, then Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four, and then choosing a champion. Bracket pros tend to move in reverse, starting at about the Four or the Eight, choosing the top teams that they see as shoo-ins, and building their brackets backwards.
For example: this year's four #1 seeds are Connecticut, Louisville, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh. If a bracket pool player is convinced all four teams can make it to the Sweet 16, they can eliminate much of the earlier round competition without a thought.
However, bracketeers who prefer riskier brackets--such as carrying #9 and #10 seeds through to the Final Four--look to spot the upsets and Cinderella teams in the early rounds, and evaluate every single opening round game with tremendous scrutiny.
Filling out a bracket from the inside out is the best option for bracketeers who are confident in a handful of reliable teams. Filling out a bracket from the outside in allows for more game-to-game prognostication, which is a big part of the appeal for many March Madness pool players.
Upsets: Look to History
There are several key historical facts to reference when filling out a bracket.
In opening round play:
- No #1 seed has never been upset by a #16 seed in the 30-year history of the 64-team tournament format.
- The #2 seed has beaten the #15 seed 96% of the time (most recent notable upset: in 2001, #15 seed Hampton beat #2 seed Iowa State by only one point.)
- The #3 seed has beaten the #14 seed 84% of the time.
- The #4 seed has beaten the #13 seed 82% of the time.
- The #5 seed has beaten the #12 seed 67% of the time.
- The #6 seed has beaten the #11 seed 69% of the time.
- The #7 seed has beaten the #10 seed 62% of the time.
- The #8 seed has beaten the #9 seed 46% of the time.
With the exception of the 5-12 and 8-9 match-ups, historically, the higher the seed, the less likely a team is to be upset in the first round. Many expert bracketeers swear by selecting one 5-12 upset (where a #12 seed beats a #5 seed) in every bracket.
However, only one #12 seed has ever gone further than the Sweet Sixteen: in 2002, #12 Missouri defeated #8 UCLA.
Whatever your strategy, using logic and a clear-head (don't let allegiance to your alma mater cloud your judgement) is the best way to ensure a winning bracket... that, and chance.
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