Dayton Flyers 2009 NCAA Tournament Preview

UD Heads into March Madness with Solid Resumé

Mar 5, 2009

An in-depth look at the Dayton Flyers NCAA tournament hopes heading into the 2009 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

This season's Dayton Flyers are much different than last season's version. They should have made the NCAA Men's basketball tournament a year ago in former-Dayton Flyers guard Brian Roberts' senior season, but they collapsed in February. Moreover, their A-10 record was unbecoming of a team once ranked in the top 15. This season, Dayton's favorite hoops team should make the cut.

Dayton Flyers Tournament Resumé

Dayton Flyers 2009 NCAA Tournament Preview

In the span of a forty minute game, opponents can only muster 60 points-per-game against Dayton. Quick hands at each position help the Flyers compensate for being out of position more than occasionally. They get their hands up constantly, while giving up the baseline often. This may be intentional as it is impossible to score behind the backboard, but it is curious, nonetheless. The Flyers, as a unit, overplay the ball side. Their best perimeter defender, Rob Lowery, unfortunately, was knocked out for the year with a knee injury against Xavier.

The Flyers are a resilient bunch and they are capable of pulling out a close victory with key defensive stands. The Flyers are 10-1 in games decided by five points or less this season. When the NCAA tournament's ‘win or go home’ format comes along, this ability to close the door will be vital. Dayton is not a team that plows through teams for the entire game. They tend to keep it close to the end.

This slight edge could mean a win or two in the Big Dance, as most attendees are, in fact, undecided before the game and root for the underdog against top-rated opponents. Fans live for the upset. Marcus Johnson is a great leaper who Coach Brian Gregory often calls alley-oops for and Chris Wright is the best frontcourt leaper in the midwest.

This season, Dayton Flyers basketball has made a transition similar to the University of Florida’s change following Anthony Roberson’s departure in 2005. Both Brian Roberts and Roberson dominated the ball and took countless shots. The lone difference was Roberts needed to, whereas, Roberson wanted to. When that type of presence departs, a more balanced approach must be conceived unless another prototype is ready-and-waiting. For Dayton, there is no such player, which is not necessarily a negative.

Chris Wright takes many low-percentage shots and his lofts sometimes are unnecessary when another step or spin would grant him two FTs. Luke Fabrizius, “The Chucker”, has only one redeeming quality; he takes and misses but continues to take, open shots. Later in his career he may become Steve Novak. Right now, he is just a loss of possession.

Why does this weakness rear its ugly head so often? Some teams escape this pitfall; others do not. Dayton’s style-of-play provides them with opportunities for free throws. They penetrate the lane constantly and draw many shooting fouls. To the aggressor go the spoils. Unfortunately for the Flyers, these spoils are often spoiled (66% FT), substandard by any means. The Flyers are ranked 13th in their conference in this integral statistic.

Dayton Flyers NCAA Tournament Profile

Coach Gregory digs deeper into his bench than almost any other coach. A dozen players can see game action. And they all contribute on some level every night. A freshman out of Columbus, Chris Johnson is an emerging wing with hulking shoulders and quick hands. Paul Williams, reigning Mr. Basketball from Michigan, yanks down a rebound every-other-minute despite an inability to jump over a dime. He must have missed countdown at birth, because he has no liftoff. Even backup center Devin Searcy leads the team in FG%. Gregory's team is a big happy family, to the angst of many fans who wish to see this aspect of his coaching change.

Tournament Prediction

One win if they are the underdog in the first round. They have a star that is still unrefined in Chris Wright and they will most likely face a #1 or #2 seed in the second round. Yes, they can defeat a Boston College or Cal squad in the first game but a UCONN, Pitt, or Memphis team may be too overwhelming. Don't count the Flyers out in one of those match-ups, they could take the lead early and hold it until the end. They can play with any team in the country; but those teams are in the top-five for a reason. The loss of Lowery hurts because the guard pressure has been scaled back accordingly. The Flyers have a disturbing record, 13-13, away from home the last two years. If they can lure in some fans early, they could spend more than a night in their hotel.

The copyright of the article Dayton Flyers 2009 NCAA Tournament Preview in College Basketball is owned by Max Sherry. Permission to republish Dayton Flyers 2009 NCAA Tournament Preview in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.