Three teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference have a realistic shot at gaining a bid to the NCAA tournament. It is likely only two of them will earn one. There are just too many qualified teams in stronger conferences to justify more than that.
Atlantic 10 Bubble Watch
NCAA Tournament Lock:
Xavier Musketeers (24-5, 12-3) RPI: 13, SOS: 45
Games Left: at Richmond (Win)
Projected record: (25-5, 13-3)
Projected seed A-10 Tournament: 1
Best wins (in order of significance): Memphis (RPI: 8), Missouri (RPI: 15), LSU (RPI:30), Dayton (RPI: 29), Temple (RPI: 38), Virginia Tech (RPI: 65), Cincinnati (RPI: 55)
Worst losses (in order of significance): Charlotte (RPI: 165), Duquesne (RPI: 97)
- The Musketeers should be the number one seed heading into the Atlantic 10 tournament. Their non-conference record, RPI, and SOS is worthy of an NCAA tournament bid should they lose every game they have left to play which is quite unlikely.
Work to be Done:
Temple Owls (17-11, 9-5) RPI: 38, SOS: 52
Games Left: St. Joe’s (Win), at GW (Win)
Projected Record: (19-11, 11-5)
Projected Seed A-10 Tournament: 4
Best wins (in order of significance): Tennessee (RPI: 27), Rhode Island (RPI: 67), Penn State (RPI: 62), St. Joe’s (RPI: 94)
Worst losses (in order of significance): UMASS (RPI: 150), Long Beach St. (RPI: 145), Buffalo (RPI: 98)
- Temple needs to win the A-10 tournament to have a shot. Their RPI is solid and they have two decent non-conference wins.
Rhode Island Rams (22-8, 11-4) RPI: 67, SOS: 132
Games Left: UMASS (Win)
Projected Record: (23-8, 11-5)
Projected Seed A-10 Tournament: 2
Best wins (in order of significance): Dayton (RPI: 29), Temple (RPI: 38), Penn State (RPI: 62), Virginia Commonwealth (RPI: 70)
Worst losses (in order of significance): Richmond (RPI: 138), St. Joe’s (RPI: 94)
- The Rams are catching fire at the right time and the NCAA committee will take note, if it continues. They have won six-in-a-row including an overtime thriller against Dayton. Combined, the RPI and SOS together are not good enough. That is the kiss of death to the NCAA committee. Their best non-conference wins are Penn State and Virginia Commonwealth- not impressive. If they can finish strong, they will garner some serious attention for an NCAA spot.
Dayton Flyers (24-6, 10-4) RPI: 29, SOS: 124
Games Left: Duquesne (Win)
Projected Record: (25-6, 11-5)
Projected Seed A-10 Tournament: 3
Best wins (in order of significance): Marquette (RPI: 21), Xavier (RPI: 13), Temple (RPI: 38), George Mason (RPI: 52), Auburn (RPI: 86)
Worst losses (in order of significance): Charlotte (RPI:165), UMASS (RPI:150), Saint Louis (RPI:109)
- The committee does not favor teams that struggle heading into the tournament. Still, Dayton lost only one non-conference game, they defeated Marquette and Xavier, they have not lost a home game, and their RPI is in the top-30. By defeating Duquesne Saturday at home and winning at least one game in the Atlantic 10 tournament, they should be assured a bid.
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