With the NCAA Men's tournament set to begin in two weeks, many people are projecting what the brackets will look like including which teams that make it and which ones miss it by the closest of margins. Regardless of who qualifies for the tournament, there are many strategies that can work to your advantage in office pools.
2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tips
- The last time that both teams in a title game were making their first-ever appearances in a Final Four was 1945 when Oklahoma A&M played NYU.
Bracket Tip: If a player picks Butler, Clemson, Gonzaga, Dayton, Xavier, Tennessee to play in the title game, then make they are facing off against a team that has previously been to a Final Four.
- One seeds tend to be the real deal, substantially better locks than any other seed. No matter how overrated a team such as favorites North Carolina, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, or Oklahoma is, there has historically been an 86% chance that they at least qualify for the 3rd round.
- While #15 seeds are 4-88 in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament since 1985, and 0-4 in the 2nd round, the four Cinderella teams who did win a game each entered the tournament having gone 9-1 in their last ten games, and had an overall winning percentage of 80% or less.
2009 March Madness Tips
Bracket Tip: Feeling lucky is what March Madness is all about so feel free to pick one of these four #15 seeds to wear the glass slipper in round one, but under no circumstances should they be picked to advance to the Sweet 16 or even the second round.
- Twenty of the past twenty-three titles have been won by teams who score 77+ PPG and have a scoring margin of 10+ PPG in the regular season.
Bracket Tip: Do not overdo it with Cinderella runs to the Final Four. For every George Mason, there are fifty top-three seeds that make the Final Four. To win a basketball pool, a player needs to nail the Final Four so keep in mind that upsets and “crazy” picks should be kept for the first couple of rounds. It might seem boring, but focus on the prize in the end. Bracket pools are not won in the first few rounds. It is similar to the golf phrase, “drive for show, putt for dough.” The upset pick will impress friends and family but it will certainly not bring home the money.
- Since 1979, the only national champion without a McDonald's All-American on the roster was Maryland in 2002.
2009 NCAA Men's Tournament Tips
Bracket Tip: Do not pick a team without one unless Pittsburgh seems really impressive heading into the tournament.
- Even though #9 seeds have historically fared better than #8 seeds (winning 55% to 45%), this split is statistically insignificant so simply focus on the better team. However, be sure to know whether there's a bonus point for picking a #9 over #8 upset. If this is the case, it might be smart simply to pick all 9 seeds.
- While #7 seeds are 57-35 vs. #10 seeds in the 1st round since 1985, #10 seeds have had much more success against #2 seeds in the 2nd round: #10 seeds are 17-18 in the 2nd round during that time (including an average of one upset win per year over the past 11 years), while #7 seeds are only 17-40 in the 2nd round over the same time period.
Bracket Tip: Pick two or three #7 seeds to win in the 1st round, but try to find one #10 seed who can make it all the way to the Sweet 16.
2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Schedule
Men's Basketball Conference Tournament Schedule
2009 Men’s NCAA Basketball Bracket
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